Despite its overwhelming importance at the heart of the international trade system, members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) have concluded their Ministerial in Abu Dhabi (“MC13”) with only a meagre outcome.
Crossing the Rubicon: Britain triggers Article 50
British Prime Minister Theresa May has now passed the point of no return for Brexit by formally triggering “Article 50” – the mechanism for the divorce between the UK and the remaining 27 Member States of the EU. Unlike the original crosser-of-the-Rubicon – Caesar – May is not seeking to move into the heart of the European Empire, but rather leading Britain out of an integrated Europe to stand alone on the world stage.
The process from here involves two negotiations between the UK and EU. The first has a highly ambitious deadline of two years and concerns the terms of British exit, a process loaded with fraught decisions. These include whether or not the British need to pay an ‘exit bill’ (some put the figure as high as €60 billion), question-marks over the immigration status of EU citizens in Britain and vice versa as well as the painstaking rewriting of relevant British policies and legislation.
The second negotiation is to agree a putative new bilateral trade agreement. That negotiation will set the terms of access to the 500 million-strong EU market, especially for sensitive sectors including agriculture, high-tech manufacturing and financial services.
Some European Member States have already declared that the two negotiations cannot be conducted in parallel – potentially leaving the UK without any preferential trade deals at the time of Brexit proper, unless an interim arrangement can be struck. The atmospherics for the negotiations are likely to be tense, to say the least and not likely to be helped by highly significant elections this year in France and Germany.
Back in Britain there are anxieties over the impact that Brexit will have on the UK economy – on ‘Article 50 Day’, the German Chambers of Industry and Commerce released a survey reporting that 1,300 German firms planned to withdraw their investments from the UK and relocate to Continental Europe, and Lloyds likewise announced that it would move its HQ out of London to Brussels.
What does all of this mean for New Zealand? The new British strategy is for “Global Britain”, involving a suite of new FTAs with not only New Zealand, but also Australia, the United States, China, Korea, India and others – although even the most ambitious line-up will be challenged to duplicate the EU market opportunity. (One visionary approach advocated by think-tank the Legatum Institute is for a new “prosperity zone” integrating a newly-independent Britain with trading partners in Asia and Australasia.)
Whatever new prospects lie on the horizon, March 29 was a sad day for regional economic (dis)integration. Whether it was chutzpah or hubris that took Caesar across the Rubicon, in the end that gamble turned out to be a triumph. Only time will tell whether Theresa May goes down in history as a person of similar visionary stature, or whether this will be a defining moment for Britain in a completely different way.
This post was prepared by Stephanie Honey, NZIBF Associate Director
REGISTER WITH TRADE WORKS
Register to stay up to date with latest news, as well as saving and discussing articles you’re interested in.
Latest News
“MEAGRE OUTCOME” FROM WTO IN ABU DHABI – BUSINESS FORUM
Media release, 2 March 2024 Despite its overwhelming importance at the heart of the international trade system, members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) have concluded their Ministerial in Abu Dhabi (“MC13”) with only a meagre outcome. NZ International Business...
To go or woe with the WTO?
We’ve been here before with the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The global trade body’s 13th Ministerial meeting (“MC13”) opens in Abu Dhabi on Monday 26 February, with Trade Minister McClay serving as Vice-Chair. In recent weeks diplomats, trade...
DCANZ – Agricultural Subsidy Distortions Must Be Addressed
23 February 2024 - Media Release by the Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand (DCANZ) As the world’s Trade Ministers head to a WTO meeting in Abu Dhabi, the Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand (DCANZ) is calling for an immediate capping of agricultural...
Asia-Pacific business leaders call for greater economic dynamism with people at the center of the APEC agenda
16 February 2024 - APEC NEWS RELEASE Issued by The APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) The APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC), meeting this week in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, expressed deep concerns about the growing pressures of economic fragmentation and the risks...
SUBMISSION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY FOREIGN AFFAIRS, DEFENCE AND TRADE COMMITTEE – FEBRUARY 2024
NEW ZEALAND EUROPEAN UNION FREE TRADE AGREEMENT LEGISLATION AMENDMENT BILL Introduction and Summary This submission is made on behalf of the New Zealand International Business Forum (NZIBF) and Export NZ. NZIBF is a forum of senior business leaders working...
ABAC Statement on WTO MC13 – February 2024
Now, more than ever, the world needs a credible, relevant, and effective multilateral trading system, with the World Trade Organization (WTO) at its core. In this era of global challenges, the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) recognizes that the WTO is...
Global Industry Statement on the WTO Moratorium on Customs Duties on Electronic Transmissions
NZIBF has joined 170 international business associations in calling for an extension to the current moratorium on tariffs applying to digital services (like Netflix) at the forthcoming WTO Ministerial meeting. The undersigned associations urge WTO members to support...
Resilient supply chains: Yesterday, today and tomorrow
Published by the Hinrich Foundation, Singapore, 23 August 2024 By Stephen Jacobi History has much to teach us about the way trade contributes to prosperity through the movement of goods, services, people, and ideas. Today, data can be added to this web of...
SUBMISSION TO THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE
GENERAL REVIEW OF THE COMPREHENSIVE AND PROGRESSIVE AGREEMENT FOR TRANS- PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (CPTPP) DECEMBER 2023 Summary This submission is made on behalf of the New Zealand International Business Forum (NZIBF). As individual NZIBF Members may make their own...
Todd McClay – your trade mission, should you choose to accept it …
As published by Newsroom 19 December 2023 By Stephen Jacobi “Twas the week before Christmas, When all through the house Not a creature was stirring, Except busy trade officials … ‘Tis the season to be “BiM-ing”* and the NZ International Business Forum has sent its...
2023 – Steps forward and back
Trade liberalisation moved forward and backward in 2023. Some notable gains have been achieved for New Zealand, but war, geo-political rivalry and global inflation continue to depress global markets. While the pandemic continued to lurk in the shadows, 2023 was the...
NZIBF releases Brief to the Incoming Minister of Trade
DECEMBER 2023...
NZIBF 2023 Chair Report
I am pleased to present my third report on the activities and achievements of the NZ International Business Forum (NZIBF) for 2023-24, our sixteenth year of operations. I am grateful to all Members and to our executive team for your continuing support. As I...
Of APEC, CPTPP and IPEF
While New Zealand was sorting out its new Government, the alphabet soup which is trade got a good stirring in San Francisco. This was APEC Leaders’ week, the annual gathering of Leaders, Ministers, business people and other stakeholders from the 21 economies of...
Remarks to Shanghai Forum: “China and CPTPP – New Zealand Expectations and Advice”
FUNDAN UNIVERSITY, SHANGHAI, 28 OCTOBER 2023 STEPHEN JACOBI, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, NEW ZEALAND INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS FORUM 杰珂陛 执行董事 新西兰国际商业论坛 CHINA AND CPTPP – NEW ZEALAND EXPECTATIONS AND ADVICE It is an honour for me to speak in such a distinguished forum. My thanks...