The end of 2024 has trade advocates reaching back to their 2016 taking points as an Administration of a depressingly protectionist hue prepares to take office in the United States, once the global champion for trade liberalisation.  We do not know for now what, when, how or whether anything might happen to shake further the already weak foundations of the global trading system, but this is an anxious time, capping off a difficult year for trade.

The good …

There have been some positive developments.  New Zealand’s shiny, new FTA with the European Union took effect, ahead of schedule.  Negotiations were finished at lightning speed with the United Arab Emirates.  A bigger agreement with the Gulf Co-operation Council was also concluded – this had remained out of reach for 15+ years prior!  Ministers and officials deserve our congratulations for their efforts.

While these are all good news, they should not detract from the continuing work by both government and business that goes on to secure New Zealand’s trade interests.  Trade Minister McClay has travelled widely this year, notably to India, where New Zealand is working hard to develop the relationship.  Work continues to address industry’s concerns with subsidies and non-tariff barriers.  The APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) continues to call attention to what is required to stimulate sustainable growth and economic integration. The Australia New Zealand Leadership Forum likewise has capped off twenty years of advocacy for CER.

The not so good …

Yet not all has progressed as we might have hoped.  The World Trade Organisation (WTO) remains in a parlous state with a poor outcome, despite the hard work of many, from its most recent Ministerial gathering in February. In November New Zealand’s favourite FTA, the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), delivered an equally underwhelming result from its Ministerial. These are not the actions designed to restore confidence in the global economy at a time when leadership is in such short supply.

The still to do …

The New Zealand Government has adopted a bold vision to double export value by 2025.  To reach such a lofty goal, we need some big, new ideas. There’s nothing wrong with our current approaches, but doing what we have always done won’t get us to where we want to be headed.  NZIBF has proposed two signature initiatives – accelerating adoption of paperless trade and building a new Southern Link supply chain from Asia to Latin America.  We hope the Government will pay greater attention to these ideas, and others like expanding CER to ASEAN, in 2025.

For now, we can take a short pause to re-charge our batteries as we await the challenges the new year will undoubtedly bring!  Best wishes to all for the festive season from the TradeWorks team!

This post was prepared by Stephen Jacobi, Executive Director of NZIBF.