Executive Director Stephen Jacobi read out on the recent Delhi business mission, published earlier by Newsroom.
China’s Dream – Trade War and Peace

Over 3000 international companies from 150 nations including 90 New Zealand exporters are participating in the forthcoming China International Import Expo (CIIE) which opens in Shanghai on 5 November. Conceived as a means to show China’s openness to the rest of the world, CIIE is a symbol for the dream of a more prosperous and integrated China, but it takes place against the background of a debilitating trade war. Business carries on, but competing economic visions will need to find a way to co-exist if global trade is going to be the engine of future progress and sustained prosperity.
China’s dream but not as we know it
President Xi Jinping’s dream (中国梦)is one with Chinese characteristics. He speaks of a “new era” for Chinese development, one from which China will emerge as a “moderately prosperous” (sic) and “fully developed” nation. The China dream is to be achieved largely by cultural and economic rejuvenation, including the sharp crack-down on corruption underway for several years now and the embracing of a new technologically-based economy particularly in areas like artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, biotech and in the digital space. There are many aspects of this dream to admire – notably its focus on eliminating poverty and promoting environmental sustainability – but also to raise concern – its neglect of individual freedoms and social and religious diversity, for example. On the economic side, the China dream foresees an expanded role for China’s state-owned enterprises and the use of massive state subsidies – that’s a problem for the rest of the world which sees them as a root cause of global market distortion. Initiatives like the “Made in China 2025” industry policy are likewise seen as a narrowly conceived bid for economic dominance in the high-tech sector. Other models are more usefully based on principles of economic inter-dependence and co-operation, like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which, if the geo-politics can be avoided, offers scope for enhanced connectivity.
China’s dream, America’s nightmare?
Across the Pacific, President Donald J Trump has also has a dream, one firmly focused on preserving, seemingly at any cost, US pre-eminence both in economic and security terms. The trade war unleashed against China is still limited in scope but is doubtless having an impact – most noticeably, on the US agricultural sector, which is being deprived of a lucrative market by Chinese retaliation. Where this will end no-one really knows, not the least of whom the Chinese who may be at a loss to understand what exactly they need to do to avoid the worst. That’s because this conflict is no longer really about trade per se – it is a much wider contest of competing economic and social visions as the US challenges the very basis of the Chinese dream itself. That makes the current environment even more worrisome.
This is no longer really about trade per se – it is a much wider contest of competing economic and social visions
Can the rest of us share in China’s dream?
This is the difficult background against which CIIE takes place. The organisers and those attending including over 90 from New Zealand, co-ordinated by NZTE, are motivated by dreams of increased trade and business and doubtless these will be realised as China mobilises its enormous buying power from across the country. “In times of crisis, keep shopping” is a strategy that was used once before (by President George W Bush). CIIE provides a great opportunity for New Zealand companies to showcase their products to Chinese consumers, develop new relationships and consolidate existing ones.
But deeper thinkers need to pay attention to the bigger picture. China and the United States are two huge poles of economic activity with the ability to deliver much needed prosperity to the rest of the world. They are themselves already highly integrated. Their friends and partners have a key interest in their mutually assured success. Rather than picking sides, we in New Zealand and others need to be doing all we can, both bilaterally and through the multilateral institutions to which we belong, to encourage the greater alignment of these competing dreams and visions.
This post was prepared by Stephen Jacobi, Executive Director of NZIBF. Stephen also serves as Executive Director of the NZ China Council and will be attending CIIE. From 2005-2014 he was Executive Director of the NZ US Council.
REGISTER WITH TRADE WORKS
Register to stay up to date with latest news, as well as saving and discussing articles you’re interested in.
Latest News
EYES OPENED DURING INDIA VISIT
Published by Newsroom on 6 September 2023 Stephen Jacobi reports on the recent business delegation to India. Every country has its contrasts and a subcontinent of 1.4 billion with thousands of years of history has more than most. Today’s India can reach the...
GUEST BLOG: Raewyn Bleakley, Chief Executive, New Zealand Food and Grocery Council
Exporting is an important part of the business of many NZFGC members whose brands we see daily on supermarket shelves. For some, exporting outweighs what they sell on our shores, while others are looking to break into new markets to open up growth opportunities beyond...
New Zealand business delegation “over the moon” with Indian trade and investment opportunities
MEDIA RELEASE - Friday 1 September, 2023 The involvement of New Zealand businesses in the successful Indian Moon landing epitomises the trade and investment opportunities between the two countries. Just as Rakon and RocketLab provided innovative elements to the...
REMARKS TO INDIA NEW ZEALAND TRADE AND ECONOMIC ROUNDTABLE
DELHI, 28 AUGUST 2023 STEPHEN JACOBI - EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, NZ INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS FORUM Opening remarks It’s a pleasure for me and the entire New Zealand delegation to be in Delhi today just days since India’s magnificent moon landing. These days India is literally...
Large business delegation bound for India
MEDIA RELEASE - Tuesday 22 August, 2023 Fifty business representatives will leave later this week bound for Delhi, making it one of the largest delegations ever to head for India. The delegation, comprising members and senior leaders of five business organisations,...
India and New Zealand: The next innings
As published in the NZ Herald, 18 August 2023 By Stephen Jacobi As a trade mission prepares to depart for Delhi, Stephen Jacobi of the New Zealand International Business Forum considers the prospects for growing two-way trade and investment between India and New...
CRUNCH TIME FOR CPTPP
As published in the NZ Herald, 18 August 2023. By Stephen Jacobi, Executive Director, NZ International Business Forum. Following the Ministers’ meeting in Auckland, what is the outlook for CPTPP as the world’s most ambitious free trade agreement? When Ministers...
INDIA AND NEW ZEALAND: GETTING ONTO THE FRONT FOOT
A 50 person business delegation is about to depart for India. It follows a major report by the India New Zealand Business Council (INZBC), published in April. The report took a critical look at the relationship, finding a number of shortcomings and advocating...
ADDRESS TO THE HAWKE’S BAY BRANCH OF THE NZ INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS – “TRADE SECURITY – FINDING NEW BASKETS”
TUESDAY 15 AUGUST 2023 STEPHEN JACOBI, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, NZ INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS FORUM It’s a pleasure to be with you once again. This is an address about trade but also about baskets and eggs – in particular how many eggs and how many baskets we need to prosper...
SUBMISSION TO THE PARLIAMENTARY FOREIGN AFFAIRS, DEFENCE AND TRADE COMMITTEE
INTERNATIONAL TREATY EXAMINATON OF THE NEW ZEALAND EUROPEAN UNION FREE TRADE AGREEMENT, JULY 2023 Introduction and Summary This submission is made on behalf of the New Zealand International Business Forum (NZIBF) whose members are listed at Annex A[1]. NZIBF is a...
CER CELEBRATES A RUBY ANNIVERSARY
The Australia-New Zealand Leadership, the semi-annual gathering of Ministers and business leaders, has been described as a “successful symbol of trans-Tasman togetherness[1]”. And the togetherness vibe was certainly present when the Forum gathered in Wellington...
Asia-Pacific businesses urge APEC Leaders to act on equity, sustainability and opportunity in an increasingly challenging landscape
APEC NEWS RELEASE issued by the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) Meeting in Cebu, the Philippines, this week, the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) stressed the need for action in an increasingly fragmented and difficult operating environment. “Our theme for...
CRUNCH TIME FOR CPTPP
This post was published by Hinrich Foundation on 18 July 2023. Following the Ministers’ meeting in Auckland, what is the outlook for CPTPP as the world’s most ambitious free trade agreement ? By Stephen Jacobi When APEC Trade Ministers gathered for their annual...
TIRED OF GEO-POLITICAL CONFLICT? TAKE A LEAF OUT OF SINGAPORE’S BOOK
Published by Newsroom, 23 June Stephen Jacobi[1] has been spending time in Singapore and finds a lot of similarities to the challenge Aotearoa faces with two big friends who are finding it difficult to get along. In the face of continuing global economic uncertainty...
IN SINGAPORE, “M” STANDS FOR MULTILATERALISM
In another post from Singapore, Stephen Jacobi addresses questions of regional security. Since even before its founding in 1965, Singapore has been located strategically at the cross-roads of economic activity in the Asia Pacific region. Today, Singapore also finds...