Stephen Jacobi, NZIBF Executive Director, speaks to the Confederation of Indian Industry Partnership Summit in New Delhi about The Future of Multilateralism.
Guest Post: Deep sea salvage – raising TPP?
Guest post from Tracey Epps, Trade Law Consultant, Chapman Tripp.
A meeting of Asia Pacific economies in picturesque Viña del Mar, Chile, 14-15 March, will consider the path forward for trade liberalisation in the Asia-Pacific region. New Zealand along with the original signatories of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) will be in attendance, along with China, South Korea and Colombia.
The US will be represented by their Ambassador to Chile. The summit will provide an opportunity, among other things, for the TPP signatories to consider the Agreement’s future.
One option which has already been mooted is the idea of a TPP minus the US (potentially with the addition of other countries). I have previously suggested that the 11 TPP partners consider re-signing the Agreement as it stands, but agree not to enforce some of the more controversial provisions until agreed otherwise.
This could preserve TPP’s attractiveness to the US for future accession, while helping to address concerns about concessions made in return for access to the US market.
But let’s for a moment consider what a renegotiation would involve. For starters, the entry into force clause would require amending. A critical mass would most likely be desired, and this could be achieved in various ways, such as a revised GDP threshold, an explicit requirement for certain countries (e.g. Japan) to ratify, or a simple numerical threshold (e.g. ratification of five signatories).
But what of the substance of the Agreement?
There are some fairly obvious national interests reflected in the text and a renegotiation would likely involve removing or revising those provisions that most strongly reflect US interests. A starting list might include various provisions found in the Intellectual Property chapter (such as copyright, biologics, patent linkage, patent term extension and technological protection measures), the Health Care Transparency annex and the State-Owned Enterprises chapter. The list might also include the application of dispute settlement to the Labour and Environment chapters, the application of “investor state dispute settlement’ (ISDS) to investment authorisations and investment agreements, the design of the temporary safeguard measures provision and the provision for textiles and apparel emergency actions.
In addition, there would be the possibility of some signatories wanting to renegotiate provisions that appear mundane on the face of it but that have particular significance to them.
Then there is the question of market access. Is there any realistic chance that the more reticent signatories would agree to liberalise further or faster in the US’ absence, (and in doing so, put pressure on the US in any future accession negotiations), or is there a risk that the US’ absence would have the opposite effect?
In short, there would be many complexities to a renegotiation – in some cases countries may readily agree to remove or revise a provision, but it would not be so simple if a provision reflected more than US interests. This is not to suggest that a renegotiation ought not to occur, but it does speak to the importance of carefully defining any renegotiation agenda to ensure that we are not dragged into a quagmire from which we might only emerge in time to find that President Trump has been succeeded and the US is back in the game.
Raising TPP from its submerged state is no simple matter. All the better to get this work underway in a Chilean sea-side resort.
REGISTER WITH TRADE WORKS
Register to stay up to date with latest news, as well as saving and discussing articles you’re interested in.
Remarks to Confederation of Indian Industry Partnership Summit, New Delhi, 15 March 2023
"The Future of Multilateralism" by Stephen Jacobi, NZIBF Executive Director Namaskar Tēnā koutou katoa – greetings to you all in the language of the Māori people of Aotearoa New Zealand. It is an honour for me to speak to such a distinguished gathering today....
AMIDST THE STORM: ABAC MEETS IN AUCKLAND
Perhaps a cyclone was after all a fitting backdrop for the meeting of the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) which was held in Auckland on 12-14 February – the global environment against which the meeting took place is decidedly stormy. In the event the wind...
Asia-Pacific business leaders call for action on climate and economic inclusion
APEC NEWS RELEASE Issued by The APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) Auckland, 14 February 2023 - Members of the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) met in Auckland, New Zealand this week to develop a work plan that calls on policymakers to leverage trade and...
ASIA-PACIFIC BUSINESS LEADERS GATHERING IN AUCKLAND, 12-14 FEBRUARY 2023
Media Release - 8 February 2023 Equity, sustainability and opportunity are key themes of one of the largest gatherings of senior Asia-Pacific business leaders held in New Zealand for some time. The APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) is due to meet in Tāmaki...
A YEAR FOR RECONNECTING
As I write this end of year dispatch, NZIBF is preparing to host the first meeting for 2023 of the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). We are looking forward to welcoming the 200 or so business leaders and senior officials from APEC member economies across the...
MAJOR GATHERING OF ASIA-PACIFIC BUSINESS LEADERS TO BE HELD IN AUCKLAND, 12-14 FEBRUARY 2023
Media Release - 14 December 2022 Sustainability, digitalisation and resilient, inclusive trade will be key themes of a major gathering of senior Asia-Pacific business leaders to be held in Auckland early next year – the first such event to be held in New Zealand...
NZ Herald: Time to lift our game in India
Following his recent visit to India our Executive Director Stephen Jacobi penned this article advocating a more strategic approach to the further development of the relationship. The article was published by the NZ Herald on 9 December.
APEC Rolls out Priorities for 2023
Issued by the Informal Senior Officials’ Meeting - Honolulu, The United States, 13 December 2022 Aiming to provide tailwinds for member economies to strengthen recovery and resilience, as well as advance broad-based economic growth, the United States rolled out its...
NZIBF 2022 Chair Report
ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2022 CHAIR’S REPORT I am pleased to present my second report on the activities and achievements of the NZ International Business Forum (NZIBF) for 2022-23, our fifteenth year of operations. At the outset I would like to thank Members for...
APEC Leaders Issue 2022 Declaration and the Bangkok Goals on the Bio-Circular-Green Economy
Issued by the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting Bangkok, Thailand, 19 November 2022 The Leaders of the 21 APEC member economies issued the 2022 Leaders’ Declaration following the 29th APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting chaired by the Prime Minister of Thailand,...
NZ BUSINESS LEADERS AT APEC 2022
New Zealand business will be represented at the APEC Leaders’ Week in Bangkok, commencing 13 November, by members of the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). New Zealand’s three members – Rachel Taulelei, Malcolm Johns and Anna Curzon – supported by Stephen Jacobi...
Submission to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade: Re-Development of the Framework for Integrating Labour Standards and Trade Agreements
Submission by NZIBF – October 2022 This submission is made on behalf of the NZ International Business Forum (NZIBF), whose members are listed at Annex A. NZIBF is a forum of senior business leaders working together to promote New Zealand’s engagement in the global...
Address to the 51st One Stop Update for The Accountant In Business, 25 October 2022
ADDRESS TO THE 51st ONE STOP UPDATE FOR THE ACCOUNTANT IN BUSINESS AUCKLAND, 25 OCTOBER 2022 STEPHEN JACOBI EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR NZ INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS FORUM GLOBAL ECONOMIC UPDATE Thanks to Brightstar for inviting me back to address this conference once again. When...
Submission to MPI on Modernising Our Export Assurances Systems: Legislative Options
Submission by Export NZ and NZIBF - 29 September 2022 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Export New Zealand (ExportNZ) and the New Zealand International Business Forum (NZIBF) welcome the opportunity to comment on the Ministry for Primary Industries’ (MPI) Modernising Our Export...
Submission to MFAT for CPTPP Review
30 September 2022 Phil Mellor Economic Division, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Wellington (By email) Dear Phil, Thank you for your email of 1 September, seeking our comments on the three year review of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans...