What’s next for Trade under Trump?

by | Nov 11, 2016 | Trade Working Blog

Remove

It won’t be business as usual on trade once President Trump assumes office on 20 January 2017.

The election of an openly protectionist President has uncertain implications for trade and consequently for a small, open trading nation like New Zealand.

Bluster and electioneering aside, the President of the United States has significant powers delegated by Congress, which could, if used, wreak havoc on the global trading system. New Zealand may not be a target but risks getting caught in the cross-fire.

In the short term it’s hard to see a way forward for the long fought for Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) which Trump opposes.  That is deeply to be regretted for New Zealand which, even with TPP’s short-comings, stood to gain significantly from the agreement, particularly in Japan and the United States.

The issues which TPP sought to address – market access, better rules for trade and investment, enhanced global value chains – will not go away and will doubtless need to be addressed by the partners including the United States. The new President is likely to be less interested in pursuing other progressive aspects of TPP such as environmental and labour protections.

New Zealand will need now to look to other vehicles to promote trade and investment such as the ASEAN-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative. China has already signalled a renewed determination to press ahead with regional trade liberalisation. We have work to do still with the European Union, despite growing protectionist pressure there. Our future trade relationship with post Brexit Britain also needs to be secured.

Back in the USA, much will depend on the policies adopted by President Trump, the people he chooses to implement them and the role played by the President himself.

On policies, will disputes and subsequent retaliation become the ‘new normal’ in the US relationship with China?  What are the consequences of declaring China a “currency manipulator”? Will Trump really raise tariffs on China and Mexico and eve rip up NAFTA?  What about multilateral agreements like the WTO – from which he can expect push back – and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change?

On people, who will advise the President on trade?  The head of his trade transition team comes from the private sector, but is an outspoken opponent of NAFTA. Will the Republican policy establishment come back to serve in a Trump Administration?

On the President himself, how will his unpredictable and abrasive character play into global policy?

These are all questions we are asking ourselves the days after an election which has shaken the world.

Meantime New Zealand has a warm and important relationship with the United States to preserve and advance. Key shared interests are at stake. We should certainly not turn our back on our American friends. Hopefully they will not do so to us.

This post has been prepared by Stephen Jacobi, Executive Director, NZ International Business Forum.

REGISTER WITH TRADE WORKS

Register to stay up to date with latest news, as well as saving and discussing articles you’re interested in.

Latest News

AMIDST THE STORM: ABAC MEETS IN AUCKLAND

Perhaps a cyclone was after all a fitting backdrop for the meeting of the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) which was held in Auckland on 12-14 February – the global environment against which the meeting took place is decidedly stormy.  In the event the wind...

A YEAR FOR RECONNECTING

As I write this end of year dispatch, NZIBF is preparing to host the first meeting for 2023 of the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC).  We are looking forward to welcoming the 200 or so business leaders and senior officials from APEC member economies across the...

NZ Herald: Time to lift our game in India

Following his recent visit to India our Executive Director Stephen Jacobi penned this article advocating a more strategic approach to the further development of the relationship. The article was published by the NZ Herald on 9 December.

APEC Rolls out Priorities for 2023

Issued by the Informal Senior Officials’ Meeting - Honolulu, The United States, 13 December 2022 Aiming to provide tailwinds for member economies to strengthen recovery and resilience, as well as advance broad-based economic growth, the United States rolled out its...

NZIBF 2022 Chair Report

ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING 2022 CHAIR’S REPORT I am pleased to present my second report on the activities and achievements of the NZ International Business Forum (NZIBF) for 2022-23, our fifteenth year of operations.  At the outset I would like to thank Members for...

NZ BUSINESS LEADERS AT APEC 2022

New Zealand business will be represented at the APEC Leaders’ Week in Bangkok, commencing 13 November, by members of the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). New Zealand’s three members – Rachel Taulelei, Malcolm Johns and Anna Curzon – supported by Stephen Jacobi...

Submission to MFAT for CPTPP Review

30 September 2022 Phil Mellor Economic Division, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Wellington (By email) Dear Phil, Thank you for your email of 1 September, seeking our comments on the three year review of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans...